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May 17, 2023

Global Shipping

The Benefits and Drawbacks of Shipping by Sea

Global shipping is a part of a massive supply chain that puts products into the hands of consumers. Though some goods can be moved long distances by air, 90 percent of traded goods are transported via sea. More than 11 billion tons of goods, including clothes, grains, cars, and oil, are carried around the world every year. The industry includes global networks of fleets, ports, tankers, and containers, which connect the world and allow countries, companies, and individuals to access goods produced far away from where they live. 



Industry Overview

Significant Routes 

While there are thousands of shipping routes that connect locations around the world, several of them are extremely important and highly trafficked. With more than 182,000 vessels passing through it each year, the English Channel, connecting the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, is the world’s busiest sea route. The Strait of Malacca sees 83,000 vessels each year, and around 40 percent of the world's trade passes through it. 


In terms of importance, the Panama Canal is essential to connecting the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This artificial seaway reduces transit time by 8,000 miles or 67 days. Other major routes include the Amazon River, the St. Lawrence River, the Volga-Baltic, and the Danish Straits. 


Top Countries & Companies 

Some countries dominate global shipping in terms of carrying capacity. Greece ranks number one, with Greek cargo ships accounting for 364 million Deadweight Tons (DWT) of capacity, or roughly 17.8 percent of the world’s total capacity. Greece is also home to the largest private shipping empire, Angelicoussis Shipping Group. 


Japan is second, with 233 million DWT equating to 11.4 percent of the world’s capacity. Japan is home to Ocean Network Express (ONE), which is ranked in the top ten of all companies in the industry. China follows closely in third, with 228 million DWT or about 11.2 percent of the world’s capacity. China also has the world’s largest seaport in Shanghai and is home to the world’s largest shipping company – China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO). 


Benefits of Global Shipping 

Capacity & Fewer Product Restrictions 

The biggest benefit of shipping by sea is that cargo ships have a large capacity, making them especially suited to oversized and heavy cargo or commodities such as oil, gases, and grains. Cargo containers are available in two sizes – 20-foot, with around 28,000kg of capacity, and 40-foot, with just over 26,000kg of capacity. Typically, cargo ships can carry 21,000 20-foot containers, which equates to 546 million kilograms of freight on each ship. In addition, product tankers can carry 70,000 to 1,345,000 barrels of gasoline, and between 310,000 to 550,000 barrels of crude oil. 


In some cases, airfreight may be an alternative to sea freight. However, planes are limited in how much weight they can carry, and there are many product restrictions for air freight that makes it unsuitable for goods such as gases, flammables, magnetic substances, and more. These restrictions are not as limiting for sea freight, which makes it easier to ship items like electronics, chemicals, and other potentially hazardous or heavy products. 


Low Transit Costs 

Though the actual rate of shipping something by sea depends on the weight, value, and destination of the goods, shipping by sea is generally the most cost-effective way to transport goods over long distances. Typically, ocean freight costs between $2.00 - $4.00 per kilogram. At these rates, a 20-foot container would cost between $56,000 - $112,000, while a 40-foot container would cost between $52,000 - $104,000. Though that seems very expensive, the alternative is significantly more.

Airfreight, by comparison, averages around $2.50 - $8.00/kg. In general, this makes shipments of more than 500 kilograms too expensive for most products. For example, shipping a 900kg box from China to the USA would cost $1,500 by sea, but $8,000 or more by air. 


That being said, air freight can still be used to transport delicate goods. In fact, 99 percent of pharmaceuticals are transported via air


Globalization and Facilitation of Trade

Domestic and international economies greatly benefit from traded goods. Goods manufactured in other countries can usually be produced for much cheaper, which ultimately increases the discretionary income (income you have to spend after necessities are paid) of local consumers.


Trade is also highly specialized. If countries chose to produce all goods at home, this would lead to fewer economies of scale and ultimately higher consumer prices. Though there’s no doubt that buying local is better for the environment as it reduces transportation emissions, supports local jobs/companies, and mitigates the risk of foreign dependency, no country in recent decades has achieved economic success without being open to the rest of the world. 


Throughout the world, nations that are rich in natural resources and/or produced goods can transport these goods to other countries. This process can often add value that drives prosperity and enables development. In today’s diverse and distributed economy, it is simply not possible or practical to solely produce all goods within a single country and maintain economic wealth. The world is dependent on trade to spread this wealth and further develop nations, and global shipping plays a massive role in enabling this movement of goods. 


Drawbacks of Global Shipping 

Transit Time & Hazards 

Transporting goods throughout the world by water takes a considerable amount of time. Many factors, including distance, route, and season, can all affect the transit time. On average, sea shipping can take 20-45 days or more. Looking at average transit times in 2021, shipping a container between China and the USA can take anywhere between 35 days to as many as 80 days. On this route, traveling via the Suez Canal takes 41 days, whereas the route through the Panama Canal, which is more expensive, is only 35 days. 


In comparison, express air can take 1-3 days, while regular air can take 5-10 days, making it significantly faster. However, when considering the limitations that air freight has, and the increased cost, accepting the longer transit time of sea freight is the most reasonable choice for many different goods. 


Another downside of sea freight is the potential hazards that vessels face. Sea cargo is more likely to get damaged or destroyed in transit as it takes much longer and vessels are more likely to move on the route. Cargo has also been known to fall off ships. However, out of the 120 million containers shipped each year, only around 550 of them are lost at sea. Piracy is a potential threat to losing cargo, however, these dangers are primarily only present in the Horn of Africa, Gulf of Guinea, and the Malacca Straits. 


Pandemic Supply Chain Disruptions 

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the existing challenges of the global transportation and logistics industries and has shown that any disruptions can present long-term complications. In the first six months of 2020, more than 1,000 container ship voyages were canceled. Due to cancellations, the demand for containers decreased, which resulted in an insufficient supply to meet the eventual increase in consumer demand experienced during the latter half of 2020. The container shortage resulted in the industry operating at maximum capacity, further increasing turnaround times in ports and creating a severe bottleneck.


These supply chain blockages have hindered economic recovery and have ultimately led to increased consumer prices, in part due to the increase in freight rates. Small developing island countries are expected to face the largest increase at 7.5 percent, while the least developed countries will see a 2.2 percent increase. For the developed world, prices are expected to increase by 1.5 percent. 


Industry Emissions and Environmental Damage

Global shipping continues to be a large contributor to global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, and these emissions are only set to increase as trade and the transport of goods continues to grow. The industry currently emits around 940 million tonnes of CO2 annually, which accounts for 2.5 percent of total global GHG emissions. According to the IMO, these emissions, under regular operating conditions, could increase between 50 percent and 250 percent by 2050. 


Most emissions from these ships are generated through the burning of fuel. Each container ship requires around 63,000 gallons of marine fuel per day when traveling at speeds between 23-28 mph. If speeds were decreased by 10 percent, emissions from fuel could drop by 30 percent. Though this solution would cause the need for more ships to offset the longer sailing times, the environmental savings would be significant. 


One of the largest commodities traded oversea is crude oil, which typically makes up 25 percent of all maritime trade. Shipping oil overseas has introduced the risk of oil spills, which are extremely harmful to ocean ecosystems, neighboring nations who are likely to experience polluted beaches, and the fishing industry. On top of minor spills that happen when fueling vessels, oil tankers add 3.5 to 6 million metric tons of oil to oceans each year.


Finally, the noise of large ships can disrupt marine life, and animals can be injured or killed by ships and their engines. 


A Critical Part of Everyday Life

Sea freight has proven to be the most cost-effective and efficient way to transport large volumes of goods over long distances. However, it doesn’t come without drawbacks. Industry emissions are cause for concern as the world moves toward greener technologies, and the resiliency of the industry was put to the test due to the pandemic, which shined a bright light on its existing challenges and lack of resiliency.


However, global shipping has transformed the way that economies and countries operate. The introduction of sea freight has given countries a chance to export their excess resources and take advantage of others’ competitive advantages. Overall, this industry provides copious amounts of value to people and countries right around the world. 

December 23, 2023
Context A CBC News article discussed the possibility of the Canadian economy heading into a recession, or whether the country has already passed that threshold. The article discussed this possibility based on slowed growth, high inflation, and the Bank of Canada’s continued interest rate hikes. Analysis A recession is a significant reduction in economic activity that occurs over a length of time, usually months or years. One of the most accepted definitions of a recession comes from the economist Julius Shiskin in 1974, who identified the threshold to an economic recession as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, although economists often argue about the comprehensiveness of this measure. The causes of a recession can be quite complicated and have many contributing factors. Some common examples include a sudden economic shock such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, excessive debt, asset bubbles, inflation, deflation, or large technological changes. One major factor influencing the probability of an economic recession includes rising interest rates from the Bank of Canada, which has implemented the highest hike in the shortest amount of time in all of the bank’s history, raising the rate over eight times since 2022. The Bank of Canada increased interest rates in order to curb inflation since rising interest rates discourage taking on debt and spending. This further encourages companies to lower prices or slow inflation to increase demand. Currently, the Bank of Canada is keeping at the 5.0 percent rate but has said that further hikes are not off the table as inflation may continue to exceed acceptable rates. Increases in interest rates can certainly contribute to or precede a recession. In fact, the Bank of Canada has raised interest rates three times to slow inflation since the 1960s and all three times this action led to an economic recession. Current fears of a looming economic depression are also not unique to Canada, as following the COVID-19 pandemic, the global inflation rate increased to 8.73 percent in 2021. This was due to supply chain issues, as well as the effect of the Russia-Ukraine War creating rising food and energy prices, as well as general fiscal instability. A majority of the World Economic Forum’s lead economists agreed earlier this year that we could see the beginning of a global recession starting in 2023, which would certainly affect the Canadian economy. The article also discusses the Canadian economy’s slowed economic growth, as the GDP has stagnated in the second quarter of this year. However, it suggests other factors may explain the decrease, including striking port workers in British Columbia, and the resulting negative effect on economic activity. An RBC report mentions how on a per-person GDP basis, there has already been a decline for four straight quarters despite a surge in population growth, and concludes overall predictions for GDP growth do not look promising despite local factors including Canadian wildfires and strikes. They also point to a 0.5 percent increase in the unemployment rate over the past few months, which has historically tended to indicate a looming recession.
December 21, 2023
Context The City of Ottawa Mayor, Mark Sutcliff released a statement about a revised plan for the redevelopment of Lansdowne, an urban public park containing historic landmarks and commercial venues. The project includes the demolition of a sports arena complex, stadium stands, and the building of a new event center, residential units, and retail space. Despite suggesting the new plan has addressed the concerns of residents, many issues remain. Analysis The City of Ottawa and the Ottawa Sports and Entertainment Group (OSEG) have been in partnership to develop Lansdowne since 2012 and finished an original redevelopment of the park back in 2014. A few years later in 2019, the financial sustainability of the park came to the city council’s attention, and in 2020 the partnership was extended another 10 years with direction to develop a new plan to revitalize Lansdowne. Consultation with community members started in 2020, with the original concept released last year in 2022, and a revised version released this month. Community feedback was acquired through various platforms including public information sessions, an open email for feedback, and public surveys. A summary report of that feedback was published on October 6th, which highlighted the six most common themes of community residents’ concerns. The first concern was related to the size and number of the multiple high-rise apartments which were designed to exceed 30 floors. In the new plan , they have removed one of the three planned buildings, with fewer total units in each, and only one tower with the potential to be built at 40 stories. Residents were also concerned about the loss of greenspace due to the new event center construction. Many people suggested they wanted that greenspace allocated elsewhere, or alternatively, an accessible greenspace roof on the event center. Although in the original plan the city had conceptualized a greenspace rooftop on the event center, this was scrapped in the new plan as it was deemed too expensive to maintain. Respondents wanted a restriction of vehicles to the premises to promote pedestrian safety, a concern that has existed since Lansdowne was first renovated back in 2014. They also wanted more public transportation infrastructure to and from the park, whether that is the local city buses, trains, or cycling infrastructure to reduce congestion on connecting roads. Relatedly, residents also desired more accessible public use space from washrooms to water fountains to usable and free space for people to occupy. The new plan has reduced the number of parking spaces for the residential buildings to meet the Bylaw limit of 0.4 spaces per unit, down from 739 to 336 spaces, while they added 36 new spaces for the event center. In terms of accessible public space, the new plan includes 27,000 square feet of space originally earmarked for the third residential building, now available for an unspecified “public realm.” Residents also wanted more local and less corporate or big-box businesses, to reflect the unique local community better. The new plan does suggest the amount of retail space has been reduced from 108,000 square feet to 49,000 square feet but does not directly address the desire to attract smaller, local businesses. Finally, there was also a concern about financial transparency of how the project is being funded and the resulting impact on the City. The Federation of Citizens Association (FCA) which represents over 70 community groups voted unanimously to oppose the new plan, which comes with a very costly price tag of $419 million, increased from $332 million of the first plan. They cite that the debt comes at a time when the transit system is facing major issues, and the city is struggling with a housing affordability crisis.
December 20, 2023
Context Newly elected Premier of Alberta Danielle Smith has defended her cabinet which is coming under fire over conflict-of-interest concerns. Environment and Protected Areas Minister Rebecca Schulz’s husband, Cole Schulz , may be lobbying the government in the areas that the Minister works in. Cole Schulz's firm is working on removing the protection of a threatened caribou range to make room for the oil and gas industry – which has raised concerns over who has Minister Schulz’s ear. Analysis The company that Cole Schulz is a partner with, Garrison Strategies, was hired by the Explorers and Producers Association of Canada and is working to influence the government on the issuing of reclamation certificates for oil and gas sites. The lobbyists are working to gain more access to protected caribou habitats to expand the oil and gas industry. They are hoping to “ address the moratorium on tenure in caribou regions ” which would effectively give them better access to land and investments. The Little Smoky and A La Peche herds in northwest Alberta were protected by a moratorium in 2013 which stopped the granting of new energy leases in this area. At the time, 95 percent of the herd’s range was heavily damaged. Phillip Meintzer of the Alberta Wilderness Association found that though records show that Garrison didn’t contact Environment and Protected Areas directly, the firm’s causes are “ too close for comfort ”. Meintzer also notes that as Garrison works on opening the protected caribou land for Alberta Energy, Environment and Protected Areas should be working on a protection plan for the federally and provincially designated threatened animal . Minister Schulz is working closely with the ethics commissioner, however, Danielle Smith confirmed that “ the ethics commissioner has looked at it, given guidance and there’s no violation [of the Conflicts of Interest Act]”. Cole Schulz also indicated that his firm wasn’t aware that Minister Schulz breached the Act at any time. Meintzer suggests that this situation “ calls for a further look ” from a third party. Sources https://globalnews.ca/news/9988998/alberta-premier-danielle-smith-rebecca-schulz/
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